- Disposals (kicks and handballs): The total number of disposals a player racks up is one of the most telling signs of their involvement in the game. Midfielders typically get the most touches, making them prime candidates for ‘Most Disposals’ bets.
- Tackles and pressure acts: Defensive contributions are critical. Players who apply significant pressure, tackle frequently, or consistently disrupt the opposition can have a massive impact, especially in tight games.
- Goals and assists: These are obvious metrics for forwards, but it’s essential to note how midfielders and even defenders can contribute to the scoreboard, particularly in modern AFL where versatility is key.
- Marks: Players who can take contested marks, especially key forwards and defenders, influence the game greatly. Tracking how often players are taking marks inside the forward 50 or in defensive positions can give you clues about team tactics and how individual players might perform in upcoming games.
- Clearances and contested possessions: These stats are crucial when evaluating players who thrive in contested situations. Look for midfielders who can win the ball in traffic or dominate stoppages to boost your betting insights on player performance.
- Recent form: A player’s recent performance, usually over the last three to five games, is more relevant than season averages. Look for players who are hitting their stride, as they’re more likely to perform well in the next game. For instance, a forward who’s kicked multiple goals in consecutive weeks is probably in top form.
- Consistency: Consistent players are gold when it comes to betting. Punters should keep an eye out for players who deliver solid performances week in and week out, regardless of the opposition. These players are less likely to have off games and make safer bets for metrics like ‘Most Disposals’ or ‘Most Goals’.
Look at a player’s current performance and history to make better bets. Avoid players with inconsistent performances. Instead, bet on players who are reliable and have recently improved their game.
- Injury recovery: Players returning from injury may take a few games to regain full-match fitness. Even star players can struggle to perform at their peak immediately after coming back. It’s wise to avoid betting on players fresh off the injury list for key metrics like disposals or goals until they’ve proven their form again.
- Fatigue: As the season progresses, players can experience physical and mental fatigue, especially those with a high workload. Fatigue can lead to diminished stats like fewer tackles, disposals, or clearances late in the season. Watch for signs that a player is wearing down, particularly if they’ve had long stints without rest.
By thinking about injuries and tiredness, you can make smarter bets. This helps you avoid players who might not play their best and focus on those who are in great shape.
- Understanding matchups: Some players consistently struggle against specific opponents. For example, a tall forward might dominate most games but consistently fail to perform against a particular key defender. By understanding these matchups, you can predict which players might underperform.
- Head-to-head stats: Historical data is your friend. Examine how players have fared in previous games against their upcoming opposition. If a player consistently beats their direct opponent or racks up disposals against a particular team, that’s valuable betting insight for prop bets.
- Weather conditions: Rain, wind, or extreme heat can alter the course of a match. For example, wet weather games usually lead to fewer marks and more contested possessions, benefiting players known for their tackling and pressure acts rather than their marking ability.
- Venue dimensions: Different grounds suit different players. Some players thrive on the vast expanses of the MCG, while others perform better in the more confined spaces of smaller grounds like the SCG. Knowing which players excel in specific venues can offer additional insights for betting.
- Fantasy points as performance indicators: AFL Fantasy scoring systems are designed to reward consistent performance across a range of categories. Players who regularly score highly in Fantasy competitions are likely to also perform well in real-life games, making them strong candidates for certain betting markets.
- Cross-referencing with betting markets: Many prop bets, like ‘Most Disposals’ or ‘Most Goals,’ align closely with AFL Fantasy scoring categories. Use Fantasy stats to guide your betting decisions, especially when trying to spot value in less popular markets.
AFL Fantasy data can serve as a handy tool for punters looking to refine their understanding of player performance and betting insights.